I suspect that it will hardly come as a surprise if I join the throng of those predicting a yes vote by Labour tonight and again by Plaid tomorrow. The wisdom of the majority hasn’t always (in fact, hardly ever!) been proved right over the past few weeks, but it looks as though we might actually have got it right this time.
Perversely, I find myself wondering whether that success might not be precisely because this particular proposal is one which is engendering so little enthusiasm – on either side. Seriously, apart from serial blogger AlaininDyfed, and Adam Price, converted rainbow supporter, who is actually enthusiastic for this deal?
Labour are busily tearing themselves apart very publicly, and even supporters of the deal seem to be supporting the deal with great reluctance. Indeed, most of the Labour supporters seem to be voting against the rainbow, rather than for the Labour-Plaid deal. This is despite the fact that the rainbow has been very publicly and irrevocably killed off by Ieuan Wyn Jones, who claims that he simply cannot depend on the ever-fickle Lib Dems. So Labour’s support will be the result of a majority of their members voting against an idea which is no longer even on the table.
Things look no better from Plaid’s perspective. The deal will be supported by the left in order to ensure that the rainbow does not rise, Dracula-style, from the dead; and by a proportion of rainbow supporters who will do almost anything to avoid another four years in opposition. So Plaid’s support will also be the result of a majority of members voting against something else, rather than for this deal.
So, today and tomorrow, both parties will vote for something for which there is no real majority in either, and a lot of bitter pills will be swallowed in the process. Pass the sugar bowl.